Led by declining TFT LCD revenues, global flat panel display (FPD) industry revenue is forecast to fall 2 percent, from $131.4 billion in 2014 to $129 billion in 2015. According to the latest “IHS Display Long-Term Demand Forecast Tracker”, dwindling TFT LCD display revenues and declining panel demand in the PC sector, along with ongoing panel-price erosion are the primary reasons for overall FPD revenue declines this year. After growth last year, global TFT LCD display revenue is expected to decline 3 percent, from $120 billion in 2014 to $115.8 billion this year. However, IHS expects a return to TFT LCD market revenue growth in 2016. Plasma, CRT, passive-matrix liquid crystal display (LCD) and electronic paper display (EPD) are also facing revenue declines, as some technologies become obsolete and others lack new applications. OLED is the only display technology expected to grow in 2015. TFT LCD display revenues grew 5 percent last year, from $114.4 billion to $120 billion, due mainly to strong growth in LCD TV panel shipments and higher panel prices. However this year the TFT LCD market is expected to decline for the following reasons: falling demand for panels used in tablets, notebooks and desktop monitors; price erosion for smartphone panels in 2015, due to sharp increases in production for low-temperature polysilicon (LTPS) TFT LCD panels, which provide higher resolution and lower power consumption; and declining open-cell LCD TV panel prices, including 4K UHD TV panels. Active-matrix OLED (AMOLED) display revenues are projected to reach $11.8 billion in 2015, up 36 percent from 2014. Passive-matrix OLED (PMOLED) revenues are projected to reach $450 million this year, up 22 percent from last year.
TFT LCD revenues in 2016 are expected to grow just over 1 percent year over year, to reach $117.4 billion. The main reasons for the growth are further expansion of LCD TV features, such as larger display size, wider color gamut and further penetration of 4K UHD TV. These features will keep ASP (average selling price) rising; meanwhile, the emergence of the 4K displays for tablets, smartphones and desktop monitors will further increase ASP. Newer automotive displays, smart watches, public displays and other new applications will also add to TFT LCD revenue growth in 2016.
